How can climate history help us create a more accurate picture of the future climate? A major European consortium, consisting of 24 partners, will spend the next four years working intensively to answer this question. Starting in March, the researchers aim to enhance existing climate models by incorporating paleo data: information from natural archives that provide insights into past conditions. The consortium was awarded a 15-million-euro Horizon grant last summer. The project is led by Anna von der Heydt and Lucas Lourens of Utrecht University.

Scientists use climate models to predict how climate will change in the future. These models are primarily validated with observational data, such as temperature, greenhouse gasses concentration in the atmosphere, collected with various measuring instruments over the past 170 years. Unfortunately, we have no measurements taken deeper back in time, even though the climate was much more erratic back then: characterized by a mix of gradual changes and sudden, critical shifts. Especially if we look at the climate on Earth before humans evolved. To better understand how the climate might respond to such abrupt transitions and tipping points in the future, we need to look to the past. Studying historical climate patterns can provide valuable insights into the mechanisms driving these rapid changes, helping us to refine our predictions and prepare for potential climatic shifts in the future.

Paleo data are not yet fully integrated into existing climate models”

Anna von der Heydt, project coordinator

Read the full article on the website of Utrecht University.