Past to Future is pleased to welcome Tallinn University of Technology (TalTech) as a new partner, joining the project through the Horizon Europe Hop-On sub-project P2F2 with €400,000 in funding. TalTech’s geology institute brings one of Europe’s largest research groups working on past environmental data to the consortium—expertise that will be central to testing how well our models capture abrupt, extreme climate events.
Estonian scientists use past climate to refine future predictions
First published by Forte on 15 July 2026
TalTech geologists are helping an international research project study major climate changes in the past to verify the reliability of modern climate models and improve future predictions.
Researchers from Tallinn University of Technology are participating in the international project “Past to Future” or P2F, the aim of which is to use data reflecting past environmental conditions to assess the reliability of climate models and to prepare more accurate future forecasts.
According to Anneli Poska, a senior researcher at the TalTech Institute of Geology, the reliability of current Earth system models is often checked against data from the last 170 years or so. However, this period reflects relatively stable environmental conditions compared to previous eras.
As current climate change becomes more widespread and extreme, Poska says, models need to be evaluated further back in time. Previous abrupt climate changes and critical transitions that affected both ecosystems and human societies must also be taken into account.
Understanding past climate change and the processes driving it is crucial for making accurate future predictions.Anneli Poska
According to Anna von der Heydt, leader of the P2F consortium, the Earth’s climate is moving towards a state of change that has never been observed before in the era of human measurements. Therefore, knowledge of past climate states is becoming increasingly important in predicting future changes.
The project combines data describing past environmental changes, Earth system models and new theoretical approaches. With these, scientists aim to better understand the potential consequences of the current climate crisis and improve the ability of models to depict rapid and extreme changes.
The results of the study will also help develop models used in the International Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Models validated against past data can be used to make more reliable future projections and create possible future scenarios based on past climate events.
TalTech brings a large research team to the project
The project “Past to Future: Towards fully paleo-informed future climate projections”, which will be implemented in 2025–2029, has received over 15 million euros in support from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research program.
The project involves 24 organizations and over 20 international partners. TalTech brings to the network of partners one of the largest research groups in Europe that collects, processes and manages data describing past environmental conditions.
Our working group of experienced scientists operates in a climatically and culturally sensitive region, the transition zone of Northern, Central and Eastern Europe.Anneli Poska
TalTech’s Institute of Geology joined the project in 2026 through sub-project P2F2. It received 400,000 euros in support from the Hop-On measure of the Horizon Europe programme. The measure is intended to involve research institutions from newer European Union member states in already ongoing international research projects.
According to Poska, the datasets collected by TalTech researchers and their experience in interpreting them are necessary, among other things, for testing model scenarios of rapid and extreme climate events. Observational data from the past can be used to assess how well the models can depict the impact of such events on the environment.